react-brainCalibration scorecard
Every recommend.default in the corpus is a dated, falsifiable prediction with a check-by horizon (shorter for fast-moving, low-confidence domains). Adversarial challenges and live npm signals resolve them: held = 1.0 · weakened = 0.5 · overturned = 0.0, scored per confidence tier. This is the page that keeps the word “confidence” honest — an assertion becomes a measurement.
Score by confidence tier
| tier | predictions | resolved | held | weakened | overturned | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 75% |
| medium | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 50% |
| low | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
Reading the numbers: 0 of 10 graded predictions have been overturned — every “weakened” verdict means the default survived an adversarial challenge but gained a real caveat, and it's deliberately scored harshly at 0.5. A modest score in the low tier is calibration working: low confidence predicts churn — the tiers earning their ordering (high above low) is the claim this page tests. Tiers marked early have too few grades to read as a trend.
Resolved predictions
react-core weakenedhigh asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-06-25
“Stay on React 19.2 and turn on React Compiler 1.0 for new code — let it handle memoization; keep existing useMemo/useCallback as escape hatches (don't strip them — removing can change the compiler's o…”
↳ don't strip useMemo when enabling Compiler; re-verify 19.2
state heldhigh asserted 2026-06-17 · resolved 2026-06-25
“Split the problem: TanStack Query for server state + Zustand for client/UI state. This is the common, low-regret 2026 pairing.”
↳ nothing overtook Zustand; local-first builds ON Query
data heldhigh asserted 2026-06-17 · resolved 2026-06-25
“TanStack Query for REST/server-state caching — the default for client-side data fetching.”
↳ TanStack Query still #1; RSC complements; Zero 1.0
nav weakenedmedium asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-07-09
“React Native → Expo Router if you're on Expo, else React Navigation. Web → use the meta-framework's router (see RB-E-META-FRAMEWORKS), or TanStack Router for a type-safe SPA.”
↳ TanStack holds type-safe-SPA axis (RR typegen framework-mode-only); but RR8 8.2.0, 50M/wk, absent from when-clauses
meta-frameworks weakenedmedium asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-07-09
“Web: Next.js is the safe default; choose TanStack Start when you want a less-opinionated, Vite-native RSC stack. RN/universal: Expo Router.”
↳ Next default holds (Start still RC, RSC experimental; 60x dl spike = Lovable CI); default line oversells Start as RSC stack + no-backport patch policy missing
styling weakenedmedium asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-07-09
“Web: Tailwind (pair with shadcn/ui — RB-E-COMPONENT-LIBS). React Native: NativeWind if you want Tailwind, else StyleSheet/Unistyles. Prefer zero-runtime/compiler approaches on both.”
↳ challenge: s-c v7 prerelease active but still runtime (advice holds); NativeWind TW4 skew caveat; dead react-native-tailwind pkg row fixed
lists weakenedhigh asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-07-09
“RN: FlashList for large lists, FlatList otherwise, ScrollView only for <20 static items. Web: react-virtual / react-window.”
↳ challenge: held vs TanStack-2.9x + Legend-v3 attacks; caveat added — FlashList v2 is New-Arch-only
native weakenedhigh asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-06-25
“Target the New Architecture (mandatory ≥ RN 0.82). Reach for Expo Modules for most native needs; use Nitro Modules for performance-critical custom native.”
↳ Nitro pre-1.0 (pin); Turbo Modules stay in-core stable; bridge removed 0.85
media weakenedlow asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-07-09
“Camera → VisionCamera (frame processors) or expo-camera (managed); video calling → LiveKit (open-source) or a hosted SDK (Daily/Agora/Stream); real-time filters → process VisionCamera frames + GPU-com…”
↳ challenge: v5 pin ahead of reality — 85% installs on frozen v4, open iOS26/race crashes; ship-now camera caveat added
build heldhigh asserted 2026-06-25 · resolved 2026-06-25
“Web: Vite 8 (Rolldown). React Native: Metro (+ Hermes V1, precompiled iOS binaries). Monorepo: pnpm workspaces + Turborepo. Expo for managed velocity.”
↳ Vite 8 stable + Rolldown GA; napi pullback hits compiler path only
Ledger: append-only tools/predictions.jsonl — 42 predictions to date. Unresolved ones aren't shown as wins; the score only counts what has actually been re-examined.